The advice to “always book early” or “wait for last-minute deals” has survived far longer than it should have. Both strategies can work, and both can fail. What actually matters is how airlines manage risk and inventory on a specific route.
Booking early tends to work best when demand is predictable and capacity is constrained. Holiday travel, summer routes, major events, and popular vacation destinations fall into this category. Airlines know these seats will sell, so prices usually increase steadily as departure approaches. Waiting in these cases often leads to higher fares and fewer options.
Booking later can work when demand is uncertain or competition is high. Routes with multiple airlines, frequent departures, or off-peak travel windows are more likely to see price adjustments closer to departure. If a flight isn’t filling as expected, airlines may lower prices to avoid flying empty seats. That’s where late-booking opportunities still exist.
What has changed is how rarely airlines panic-discount seats at the last minute. Modern pricing systems are much better at forecasting demand, which means dramatic last-minute drops are less common than they were a decade ago. More often, prices either rise steadily or fluctuate within a narrower range as departure approaches.
Another overlooked factor is flexibility. Early-booked fares are often cheaper but more restrictive. Late-booked fares may offer better change options but at a higher base price. Travelers who value flexibility sometimes benefit from booking later, even if the ticket costs more, because the rules are more forgiving.
The biggest mistake travelers make is treating timing as a universal rule instead of a situational decision. Route history, seasonality, competition, and personal flexibility all matter more than the calendar date.
A more effective approach is to observe pricing behavior on your specific route. If prices move frequently and competition is high, there may be value in waiting. If prices climb steadily and availability tightens, booking early is usually safer. Watching trends for even a short period often reveals which pattern you’re dealing with.
The early vs late debate misses the point. The real advantage comes from understanding how pricing behaves on your trip and staying engaged after booking, rather than assuming timing alone will protect you.